Wednesday, August 25, 2010

Last Night: Victory, Disappointment, and Hope

I woke up this morning to see the political world ablaze over Joe Miller's thin lead over Lisa Murkowski in Alaska and Rick Scott's defeat of Bill McCollum in Florida.

In other Huckabee news, Karen Diebel lost narrowly in the Florida 24th (as expected) and Trent Franks blew away his primary challenger in the Arizona 4th.

On the bright side, Huckabee-backed candidates won 8 out of 11 races last night — with Miller a potential 9th win. Most won by 60 percent or more, some by as high as 70 or 80 percent. It was a strong showing for Huck PAC and Governor Huckabee.

The biggest wins were Lankford and Webster. Huck PAC volunteers made thousands of calls for Lankford in the Oklahoma 5th and Huckabee personally campaigned for Webster in Florida last weekend — neither was a foregone conclusion, and both won handily.

On the down side, a McCollum win would have been the clincher on a great night. It was the highest office and the biggest race in Florida. While it doesn't so much hurt Huckabee (Romney, Gingrich, and Jeb Bush also endorsed McCollum), it could have helped.

But the biggest story of last night is the story that has yet to resolve. With 97 percent of precincts reporting, political newcomer and long shot Alaskan Joe Miller leads incumbent Senator Lisa Murkowski by less than 2,000 votes out of 90,000 cast.

CQ Politics analyzes the race — which won't be resolved until as late as September 8th, after 16,000 absentee ballots and additional late ballot are counted:

Alaska Sen. Lisa Murkowski is in danger of becoming the seventh Member of Congress to lose a primary this year, as she trails Republican challenger Joe Miller in Tuesday’s contest. With 98 percent of precincts reporting, Miller leads 51 percent to 49 percent, with less than 2,000 votes separating them.

The final result will not be known for at least a week, however, with as many as 16,000 absentee ballots waiting to be counted, the Anchorage Daily News reports. The first ballot count will take place Aug. 31, followed by subsequent counts for late-arriving ballots on Sept. 3 and Sept. 8.

Most political observers were not expecting Miller to mount such a serious challenge to Murkowski, who holds a 10-to-one cash advantage. Miller had the backing of local and national tea party organizations, while Murkowski ran on experience, seniority and as a continuation of the legacy left behind by the late Sen. Ted Stevens (R-Alaska).

Plus, despite a dearth of polling on the race, the most recent primary poll showed Murkowski with at least a 30-point lead. However, Miller had a couple of powerful GOP endorsements in his pocket, including former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin , who loaned their voices for robocalls that flooded the state.

Read the whole thing...

The Fairbanks News-Miner gives a local perspective on the race, including a quote from Miller's spokesman Randy DeSoto giving partial credit to Huckabee:

Miller, a Gulf War veteran and former federal magistrate who has held no prior political office, looked to pull off the upset of the night as incumbent Republicans around the country fended off insurgent candidates supported by Tea Party group.

With 71.5 percent of precincts reporting and an unknown number of absentee ballots still out, Miller led Murkowski 51.83 percent to 48.1 percent, with a lead of about 3,135 votes.

“Sarah Palin, Mike Huckabee, Laura Ingraham, everything just seemed to come together at the end,” Miller spokesman Randy DeSoto said, rattling off some of Miller’s biggest endorsements.

Read the whole thing...

A Miller win would favor Sarah Palin more than anyone else — due to her Alaska and Murkowski connections — but it would remain a huge upset, a win for Alaska, and a win for Governor Huckabee. Let's hope it holds. More to come throughout the day.

1 comment:

  1. Congrats to Huck for a pretty successful day (and birthday).

    ReplyDelete