Huckabee Leads 2012 Field in WSJ/NBC Poll

Following right on the heels of the POLITICO/George Washington University poll comes another poll of national favorables — this one from the Wall Street Journal and NBC:

Favorables/Unfavorables

1. Mike Huckabee (26/25, +1)
2. Mitt Romney (21/30, -9)
3. Newt Gingrich (24/35, -11)
4. Sarah Palin (30/48, -18)

Read the full results...

Analysis: As some will point out, the better known a candidate is, the higher their unfavorables. But Huckabee beats Romney by 10 points, despite identical name identification — and he nearly matches Palin's total favorables (the highest in the lot), despite her far greater name recognition. This has been a good week for Huckabee.

PPP: Huckabee Leads in WV, Trails in CA and MI

Public Policy Polling releases their latest 2012 state polls — for California, Michigan, and West Virginia. They will have Illinois and North Carolina numbers later this week:

California:

1. Mitt Romney (24 percent)
2. Newt Gingrich (21 percent)
3. Sarah Palin (18 percent)
4. Mike Huckabee (17 percent)

Michigan:

1. Mitt Romney (30 percent)
2. Sarah Palin (17 percent)
3. Newt Gingrich (16 percent)
4. Mike Huckabee (14 percent)

West Virginia:

1. Mike Huckabee (27 percent)
2. Sarah Palin (24 percent)
3. Newt Gingrich (16 percent)
4. Mitt Romney (13 percent)

Full results here...

Analysis: While Huckabee supporters would wish it otherwise, it is not surprising that Huckabee trails Romney, Gingrich, and Palin in the first two. Neither were strong states for him in 2008. But Huckabee leads the field in West Virginia in almost every category, including men and women, every age group, and among moderates and conservatives. The only group he fails to win is self-described "liberals," proving his controversial victory in the 2008 primary was no fluke. With high national favorables, a bigger platform, out-of-the-gate grassroots and fundraising, and enduring support in the states where he won last time — Huckabee should only improve on his 2008 showing.

Halperin: Huckabee with Substantial Iowa Support

The Globe Gazette (based in Mason City) has a great article on Mark Halperin and John Heileman in Iowa, working on their 2012 sequel to the 2008, behind-the-scenes book Game Change — with the following analysis of the 2012 caucus:

THE RACE FOR 2012: It’s a wide open Republican field in 2012 with more than a dozen possible GOP presidential candidates, and Heilemann said the race is shaping upto be the most competitive he’s ever seen.

Halperin said he sees seven main contenders in 2012, three of whom are Fox News contributors. Halperin believes former Georgia congressman Newt Gingrigh, former Alaska governor Sarah Palin, former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee, former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty, Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour and Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels are the most likely to make deep runs for the nomination.

Halperin isn’t picking a Republican who might fare best in Iowa in 2012, but said Huckabee, won the 2008 GOP Iowa caucus, still has a lot of supporters in the state.

“His Fox role has helped that too. He’s the reigning champ, but I think it’s too soon to say the potential that some of the others would have,” Halperin said.

Heilemann named Huckabee, Palin and Gingrich as Republicans who would play well in Iowa in 2012, with Palin appealing to Christian conservatives and Huckabee having substantial continuing support. He said Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty would likely have a hard time nosing his way into the top tier of candidates, unless he found a key issue to make inroads.

Read the whole thing...

POLITICO: Huckabee Polls Best for 2012

The latest Politico/George Washington University Battleground poll is out, and it's good news for Governor Huckabee — who beats out all the other potential GOP candidates:

Favorable (Strongly and Somewhat)

1. Mike Huckabee (49 percent)
2. Mitt Romney (45 percent)
3. Sarah Palin (44 percent)
4. Newt Gingrich (39 percent)

Strongly Favorable

1. Mike Huckabee (23 percent)
2. Sarah Palin (22 percent)
3. Newt Gingrich (17 percent)
4. Mitt Romney (16 percent)

Unfavorable (Strongly and Somewhat)

1. Mike Huckabee (25 percent)
2. Mitt Romney (28 percent)
3. Newt Gingrich (39 percent)
4. Sarah Palin (49 percent)

Strongly Unfavorable

1. Mike Huckabee (14 percent)
2. Mitt Romney (15 percent)
3. Newt Gingrich (29 percent)
4. Sarah Palin (39 percent)

Analysis: While poll watchers rightly point out that both Huckabee and Romney do well (Gingrich and Palin, not so much), Huckabee is the clear winner. Particularly, his strong favorables are over 25 percent higher than Romney's, who comes in 4th — another indication that Romney's support is shallow compared to the rest of the field.

Huckabee and Unions = Strength for 2012

Philip Dine, a Washington-based journalist, author, and expert on labor issues (see his website, here), has an editorial in the Washington Times that argues that the Republican nominee in 2012 should look to draw more support from unions. He explains:

Now, it's true that unions inevitably support a Democrat for president. But members' votes are more complex. More than a quarter of rank-and-filers are Republicans; in some unions, the number tops 40 percent. Then there are the Reagan Democrats/NASCAR dads/blue-collar conservatives who helped elect Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush. And the continuing high unemployment rate and other concerns might put even some other Democratic members' votes in play.

In recent national elections, one-quarter of all voters have come from union households. Among this group, three-quarters have chosen the union-endorsed candidate. This means that the Republican starts at a distinct disadvantage, having to win 58 percent of the rest of the vote just to pull even, while the union-endorsed candidate needs only 42 percent of the remainder to secure half of the electorate.

So the more a Republican presidential candidate cuts into the union vote, the easier his overall task is.

Dine then turns his attention to which Republican candidates are most positively perceived by "union folk." Topping the list? Governor Mike Huckabee:

Mike Huckabee: Much good will here. Though the media explained his strong showing in the 2008 primaries by his religious appeal, this was just one factor. Mr. Huckabee is a rare Republican who speaks the language of the working people, not of corporate America (which is why he's distrusted by Wall Street and the GOP establishment), while welcoming union support (including last time from teachers and machinists). With him, working-class social conservatives don't have to sacrifice their economic interests.

This is high praise, especially when you read Dine's evaluations of the other GOP contenders. Palin and Pawlenty round out the top three, but both are a mixed bag:

Sarah Palin: Ridiculed by many union folks, revered by others; not much different from among the population as a whole. It's less her views than questions about her qualifications that turn off some, but others admire her independence and moxie. Being married to a card-carrying union member doesn't hurt her standing, but being vague about job creation does.

Tim Pawlenty: Seen by some as a fiscal conservative who relates to average people. A former labor lawyer (for management), he's not particularly friendly to labor. He displays concern about what he calls "Sam's Club" people and their struggles, while warning the GOP not to be the party of the "country club." But he did himself no favor by recently opposing federal aid to states to prevent teacher layoffs.

And bringing up the rear, Romney, Daniels, Gingrich, and DeMint:

Mitt Romney: Widely viewed as a champion of the wealthy and business executives. Although he is grudgingly respected for his knowledge of economics, his opinions are strongly opposed.

Mitch Daniels: Aggressively took on Indiana's public employees; no love lost here.

Newt Gingrich: Fuggedaboutit.

Jim DeMint: Seen as a bomb thrower; talks frequently of the need to confront "union bosses." He might gain an audience if he occasionally mentioned the problems wrought by "corporate bosses." Actually not, after he put a hold on a qualified presidential nominee to head the Transportation Security Administration after the attempted Christmas airplane bombing. His aim: to prevent TSA workers from forming a union.

Granted, many Republicans support positions union members would oppose — but when it comes to defeating Obama in 2012, Dine's analysis provides a glimpse at a hidden demographic for the GOP, one missed by pundits and pollsters: the blue-collar worker.

As I have noted elsewhere on this blog — and Dine confirms — this is a demographic with which Huckabee has earned a lot of credibility and goodwill, and long before it was the popular thing to do. If he runs, which I hope he does, it could serve him well.

Read Dine's full editorial here.

Politico: Huckabee, Palin Bid for Conservative Base

Andy Barr and Jessica Taylor of POLITICO have written a long article on Huckabee and Palin's competing bids for the conservative base of the Republican party:

Throughout the primary election season, Sarah Palin and Mike Huckabee have made different — and often rival — bets on candidates in a wide variety of races. It’s a happenstance that has some Republicans wondering if there is more to the rivalry than meets the eye, since the two former governors share a similar ideological space within the party.

Both camps downplay the idea that there is a low-intensity conflict taking place and deny that any animosity exists. Publicly, the two rarely talk about each other.

Still, it’s hard not to notice how frequently the two outside-the-establishment presidential prospects have lined up against each other this year.

....

Bob Vander Plaats, who was endorsed by Huckabee in the Iowa governor’s race, told POLITICO that he was shocked when Palin endorsed former Gov. Terry Branstad, the eventual winner.

“Our campaign, myself included, was more than a bit surprised that Sarah would endorse Branstad,” said Vander Plaats, a favorite among Iowa’s grass-roots conservatives. “If she prided herself in going rogue and endorsing the conservative candidate or tea party candidate, we just didn’t see Branstad fitting that mold at all.”

“Was she doing that because Huckabee endorsed me? Did she do that because a poll showed Branstad winning in Iowa?” asked the still-puzzled former gubernatorial candidate. “She seems to be all over the board. I think Huckabee has shown a lot of consistency in his endorsements.”

....

“There are several occasions where Gov. Huckabee and Gov. Palin endorse different candidates and many where they endorse the same candidate — that’s just politics,” [HuckPAC director, Hogan] Gidley said. “Whether front-runner, underdog or somewhere in between, it makes no difference. HuckPAC supports conservative Republicans who are passionate advocates for human life, tax reform, a strong national defense, real border security, the family, less government and individual liberty.”

Huckabee isn’t completely unaware of his overlapping constituency with Palin. When Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) selected Palin as his running mate, the former Arkansas governor publicly made a point of noting their similar profiles.

....

Asked about Huckabee’s past comments regarding Palin, Gidley said that “the media often take Gov. Huckabee’s comments out of context, and there is no conflict with Gov. Palin.”

“In fact, Gov. Huckabee has said repeatedly — even in interviews documented by POLITICO — he personally likes Gov. Palin and what her popularity brings to the Republican Party,” Gidley added. “Any perceived animosity or feud is a fabrication of the media.”

Read the whole thing...

Huckabee 2nd in Values Voter Straw Poll

Via a "special update" text from FRC Action. More to come...

VVS 2010 Presidential Straw Poll RUNNER-UP is Gov. Mike Huckabee - Who will win? Stay tuned...

Update 1: If the winner is Romney, Palin, or Gingrich (or even Santorum), this could be cause for concern. If the winner is Pence or DeMint or someone else, not so much.

Update 2: Mike Pence places first with 24 percent, followed by Huckabee (22 percent), Romney (13 percent), Gingrich (10 percent), and Palin (7 percent). Apart from a win, this is a best case scenario for Governor Huckabee.

Update 3: Pence is a true conservative, but unlikely to run for President in 2012. Hopefully this boosts his chances as future governor of Indiana. For Huckabee, he continues to dominate Romney, Gingrich, and Palin among values voters.

Update 4: My final analysis is that Pence just gave a better speech than Huckabee this year. Mild disappointment for Huckabee. Major disappointment for Palin and Santorum — his biggest challengers for the social conservative vote.

Update 5: Full results, with vote totals here.

PPP: Huckabee Tops Obama, Entire GOP Field

Public Policy Polling (D) has their latest monthly 2012 poll results — and it is all great news for Huckabee. He is the only member of the GOP field to top Obama in a head-to-head matchup, the only Republican to beat Obama among independents, and the only Republican with positive favorability ratings. He also pulls nearly 1 out of 5 Democrat votes. Across the board, it is a dominating showing for the Governor:

Mike Huckabee is the only possible GOP contender polling ahead of Obama this month, at 47/44. Going from arguably most pleasant to most angry across the spectrum of leading Republicans you then have Obama ahead of Mitt Romney 46-43, Newt Gingrich 47-43, Sarah Palin 49-43, and Glenn Beck 48-39.

Huckabee is the only candidate we polled this month to post positive favorability numbers, at 35/32. That's because he's relatively inoffensive to Democrats with only 44% having an unfavorable opinion of him. Mitt Romney's favorability numbers are only slightly negative at 33/35. The rest of the GOP folks are highly unpopular with Beck's favorability at 31/41, Palin's at 38/52, and Gingrich's at 30/50.

Read the whole thing...

POLITICO: Huckabee, Tea Party, and 2012

As Ben Smith notes, POLITICO has a long article this morning on the Tea Party and 2012 — "a Huckabee party." I can't disagree. Who are the anti-establishment candidates in 2012? Palin, Huckabee, and (possibly) Ron Paul. We haven't seen Palin actually run a campaign, but we know Huckabee can — on less money and powered by grassroots:

Putting the issue matrix aside, imagine a primary that looks more like the Iowa caucuses in 2008, where Mike Huckabee had little cash and less infrastructure but won in a romp because he was in sync with the grassroots and running against the establishment.

“There are moments I think, gee, I got into this two years too early,” Huckabee quipped in a POLITICO interview Wednesday.

As veteran Republicans like Sen. Robert Bennett in Utah and Rep. Mike Castle (the front-runner knocked off by O’Donnell) go down in flames, it may also signal an end to the venerable GOP tradition of presidential primogeniture. Grassroots conservatives right now want a candidate who will take on the status quo, not one who has waited his turn to carry the party’s banner in the fashion of Bob Dole or George H.W. Bush. This time out, Romney has figured to be the beneficiary of the it’s-his-turn instinct.

Issues such as TARP—the bipartisan program to bail out failing banks--could join abortion and other cultural issues as new litmus tests in the Tea Party era.

“Every person who voted for it is going to have explain if not apologize for their vote on it,” warned Huckabee, of the 2008 financial bailout. “It doesn’t wash to say, “Things would have been so much worse if we hadn’t done it.’”

Money will still be important in 2012, Huckabee said, but he added: “The wonderful thing out of the Tea Party movement is it causes money to matter less.”

Read the whole thing...