Bear with me as I indulge in some pure — and very premature — speculation.
Former governors Sarah Palin and Mike Huckabee are often said to appeal to the same voters: evangelicals and social conservatives. While Palin (for the moment) draws more popularity from the Tea Party crowd, her favorables are dwarfed by Huckabee's.
Following news this week of Palin's dismal numbers in Iowa — confirming my long-held opinion that she has little to no chance at the nomination — I've been thinking:
What happens if Palin doesn't run, or drops out early?
In 2008, it was the Palin pick for vice president that reignited enthusiasm for McCain among social conservatives — and particularly, a lot of Huckabee supporters. Is it reasonable to assume that much of her support would fall to Huckabee?
So far, polls have shown that Romney's support is soft — when additional candidates are added to the field (like Gingrich) his numbers drop, while Huckabee's remain steady.
While some have theorized that Palin and Huckabee will split the social conservative vote, paving the way for Romney, I see Gingrich having more lasting power than Palin. If Palin drops, and Gingrich stays in, the road might instead be paved for Huckabee.
Gingrich's appeal is that he offers "Solutions" for America. He is seen as the answer man. But I also see Huckabee as increasingly gaining respect for having the answers to our nation's economic and other problems, such as high taxes and illegal immigration.
ReplyDeletePalin, while appealing to Republicans tired of compromise and refusal of politicians to attack corruption, has not grown so much in her ability to resolve issues as she has to appeal to general discontent with government.
Romney should be hurting more for his Massachusetts state health care program that was a forerunner of the unpopular Obamacare program. That should cause problems down the road. Gingrich will suffer from his past moral issues, and Huckabee will have to answer for his so-called "pardons" of prisoners. I think he has good answers and hope this will not become much of an issue.
Overall, it will be interesting if any of the second or third-tier potential candidates move up. I don't really see any who might, like Huckabee, enter as darkhorses and win the Iowa primary. Not with Huckabee in the race and so widely known, loved, and respected there.