Now, it's true that unions inevitably support a Democrat for president. But members' votes are more complex. More than a quarter of rank-and-filers are Republicans; in some unions, the number tops 40 percent. Then there are the Reagan Democrats/NASCAR dads/blue-collar conservatives who helped elect Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush. And the continuing high unemployment rate and other concerns might put even some other Democratic members' votes in play.
In recent national elections, one-quarter of all voters have come from union households. Among this group, three-quarters have chosen the union-endorsed candidate. This means that the Republican starts at a distinct disadvantage, having to win 58 percent of the rest of the vote just to pull even, while the union-endorsed candidate needs only 42 percent of the remainder to secure half of the electorate.
So the more a Republican presidential candidate cuts into the union vote, the easier his overall task is.
Dine then turns his attention to which Republican candidates are most positively perceived by "union folk." Topping the list? Governor Mike Huckabee:
Mike Huckabee: Much good will here. Though the media explained his strong showing in the 2008 primaries by his religious appeal, this was just one factor. Mr. Huckabee is a rare Republican who speaks the language of the working people, not of corporate America (which is why he's distrusted by Wall Street and the GOP establishment), while welcoming union support (including last time from teachers and machinists). With him, working-class social conservatives don't have to sacrifice their economic interests.
This is high praise, especially when you read Dine's evaluations of the other GOP contenders. Palin and Pawlenty round out the top three, but both are a mixed bag:
Sarah Palin: Ridiculed by many union folks, revered by others; not much different from among the population as a whole. It's less her views than questions about her qualifications that turn off some, but others admire her independence and moxie. Being married to a card-carrying union member doesn't hurt her standing, but being vague about job creation does.
Tim Pawlenty: Seen by some as a fiscal conservative who relates to average people. A former labor lawyer (for management), he's not particularly friendly to labor. He displays concern about what he calls "Sam's Club" people and their struggles, while warning the GOP not to be the party of the "country club." But he did himself no favor by recently opposing federal aid to states to prevent teacher layoffs.
And bringing up the rear, Romney, Daniels, Gingrich, and DeMint:
Mitt Romney: Widely viewed as a champion of the wealthy and business executives. Although he is grudgingly respected for his knowledge of economics, his opinions are strongly opposed.
Mitch Daniels: Aggressively took on Indiana's public employees; no love lost here.
Newt Gingrich: Fuggedaboutit.
Jim DeMint: Seen as a bomb thrower; talks frequently of the need to confront "union bosses." He might gain an audience if he occasionally mentioned the problems wrought by "corporate bosses." Actually not, after he put a hold on a qualified presidential nominee to head the Transportation Security Administration after the attempted Christmas airplane bombing. His aim: to prevent TSA workers from forming a union.
Granted, many Republicans support positions union members would oppose — but when it comes to defeating Obama in 2012, Dine's analysis provides a glimpse at a hidden demographic for the GOP, one missed by pundits and pollsters: the blue-collar worker.
As I have noted elsewhere on this blog — and Dine confirms — this is a demographic with which Huckabee has earned a lot of credibility and goodwill, and long before it was the popular thing to do. If he runs, which I hope he does, it could serve him well.
Read Dine's full editorial here.
Huckabee is the only candidate who combines a real understanding of what it is to have to earn a living with proven ability and executive experience. His achievements as Governor of Arkansas are all the more remarkable because he had to work with a strongly entrenched Democrat machine to accomplish them.
ReplyDeleteWe NEED him in the White House--I hope he chooses to run in 2012.
As a Swedish conservative, I'm tired of trade unions and their political ambitions. Unions should be allowed (they are actually a natural part of capitalism), but not have too much to say about in politics, because they are virtually impossible to satisfy; they just demand more and more.
ReplyDeleteHuckabee continues to poll as the only Republican who can defeat Obama and this is just another reason why. If he chooses to run, we will support him.
ReplyDeleteOne area that Huck could use to bring in more Union member types is to have a more balanced approach to trade issues than other GOP hopefuls have. The GOP's non-questioning attitude towards international trade has cost them many votes among blue collar union members. Being vocal about getting fairer trade deals for American workers would serve Huck well when (not if!) he runs in 2012.
ReplyDelete